Global Energy · April 2026

Oil Market Dashboard

The U.S. is mostly self-sufficient in oil — but global pricing means a Hormuz disruption still drives prices higher, often weeks after the initial event.

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Financial markets

React in minutes

News, war, ceasefires — prices move immediately

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Physical supply

Moves in weeks

Tankers, refineries, deliveries — the real lag

Where the U.S. Gets Its Oil

January 2026 supply mix. Hover a slice to inspect.

67%Domestic
  • Domestic (U.S.)67.2%
  • Canada20.3%
  • Other Imports7.6%
  • Persian Gulf3.3%
  • Mexico1.6%
The U.S. barely depends directly on Hormuz — only ~3.3% of supply comes from the Persian Gulf. Canada and domestic production cover 87%+ of needs.

Why Hormuz Still Matters

~20% of global oil flows through Hormuz, mostly to Asia. Here's how a disruption ripples outward.

Hormuz disruption

~20% of global oil cut off

Asia loses supply

China, India, Japan scramble

Asia bids globally

Competes for all available oil

Prices rise everywhere

Oil is globally priced

U.S. pays more

Even with 67% domestic supply

Oil is globally priced, not locally sourced. Asia bidding for alternatives pulls supply from everywhere — including U.S. suppliers who can now charge more.

The "Delayed Shock" Timeline

Shipping transit times to U.S. ports create a 5–7 week gap between disruption and real shortages.

Day 0Disruption starts

News breaks, ships reroute

Day 0–2Prices spike

Financial markets react instantly

Week 1–4Fake calm

Old shipments still arriving — feels stable

Week 5East Coast gap

~5 week transit time runs out

Week 6West Coast gap

~6 week transit time runs out

Week 7Gulf Coast gap

~7 week transit — real shortages begin

Immediate shock False stability Real impact

~5 wks

East Coast

~6 wks

West Coast

~7 wks

Gulf Coast

Scenario Pricing

Estimated price ranges based on conflict duration and severity. Select a scenario.

Oil (crude)

$100–$130/bbl

Gas at pump

$4.50–$5.50/gal

Risk level:Moderate

Conflict drags on for weeks. Supply lag starts showing in Week 5–7 window. Real shortages begin.

Key impacts

  • Travel costs rise noticeably
  • Inflation sticks for months
  • Airlines absorb higher fuel costs

Bottom Line

Right nowVolatility driven by headlines, not supply
Mid-April+Real supply shock risk begins as tanker gaps appear
Long-termEntirely depends on conflict duration and global response

Protected from shortages. Not protected from prices.